Thursday 31 December 2009

Currency Crisis

I have recently consumed myself in every bit of news and listened to Peter Schiff, Ron Paul and many others as well as people with different views on the current situation in the US economy. The desperate attempt by people like ben bernanke to artificially stimulate the US economy is just making matters worse, as his solution is to print more money and to give it to the banks and businesses such as Freddy and Fannie, which now have 100% of their loses covered by the government. The government is getting bigger and bigger, intervening with the free markets. The housing crash was brought about by too much easy credit, you only needed to put down about 5% to get a house, and people believed housing prices would just continue to rise I mean how dumb is that. After the crash what then would have happened would be that lenders would tighten up on lending and be more cautious to lend to people who were too likely to default. But the government stepped in and said we will guarantee the loans so then people started to lend, the interest rates were also set to 0%, encouraging no one to save and again encouraging people to take risks they wouldn't have had the government stayed out of the free markets. The government encouraged more spending, more debt in many ways.

The country is massively in debt and they desperately need to let companies that are failing to be productive fail, let resources be bought up and let new companies start up, which aren't owned by the government and aren't a drain on tax money. They need to allocate resources to allowing the country to be productive again. The only reason this has been able to go on as long as it has is because the US dollar is the reserve currency. If you look at England, who is closely linked with US, our debt is a bigger percentage of our GDP and I am sure it would be less if our currency was the reserve currency. With the US, their currency used to be backed by gold so they convinced people to trade with dollars because it was good as gold, and gold is real money, but since they moved of the gold standard it no longer applies, it allowed the government to borrow and spend and now the world is realizing. It is inevitable that the dollar will eventually become worthless, it has always happened in history, it cannot hold its value forever. The problem is the dollar isn't backed by anything only faith and the world is losing faith. They have good reason to because the US is based on borrowing money from china to buy more stuff, and china are just giving the US money because they would lose even more if they didn't. China are slowly trying to move away from the dollar and have said they are buying gold on dips only because they don't want to push the price up. Really its a lose lose situation whatever china do, but its only a matter of time until they stop lending the US money. I believe soon a currency crisis will hit the reverse currency and seize to exist.

I am still in Mwana Africa, but only just, it has slipped to 12.5p but apparently it seems to have strong resistance slightly above 12p. A strong buy imo and I am in for £600 now but if it slips 1p I would be out.